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008 100721s2010 ne | s |||| 0|eng d
020 _a9789048191710
_9978-90-481-9171-0
024 7 _a10.1007/978-90-481-9171-0
_2doi
050 4 _aQC801-809
072 7 _aPHVG
_2bicssc
072 7 _aSCI032000
_2bisacsh
082 0 4 _a550
_223
082 0 4 _a526.1
_223
100 1 _aPisarenko, V.
_eauthor.
245 1 0 _aHeavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis
_h[electronic resource] /
_cby V. Pisarenko, M. Rodkin.
264 1 _aDordrecht :
_bSpringer Netherlands :
_bImprint: Springer,
_c2010.
300 _aXIV, 190 p.
_bonline resource.
336 _atext
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _acomputer
_bc
_2rdamedia
338 _aonline resource
_bcr
_2rdacarrier
347 _atext file
_bPDF
_2rda
490 1 _aAdvances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research,
_x1878-9897 ;
_v30
505 0 _aDistributions of Characteristics of Natural Disasters: Data and Classification -- Models for the Generation of Distributions of Different Types -- Nonparametric Methods in the Study of Distributions -- Nonlinear and Linear Growth of Cumulative Effects of Natural Disasters -- The Nonlinear and Linear Modes of Growth of the Cumulative Seismic Moment -- Estimating the Uppermost Tail of a Distribution -- Relationship Between Earthquake Losses and Social and Economic Situation.
520 _aMathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions. The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected. Audience: This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.
650 0 _aGeography.
650 0 _aPhysical geography.
650 0 _aGeology.
650 1 4 _aEarth Sciences.
650 2 4 _aGeophysics/Geodesy.
650 2 4 _aNatural Hazards.
650 2 4 _aStatistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences.
650 2 4 _aEarth Sciences, general.
700 1 _aRodkin, M.
_eauthor.
710 2 _aSpringerLink (Online service)
773 0 _tSpringer eBooks
776 0 8 _iPrinted edition:
_z9789048191703
830 0 _aAdvances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research,
_x1878-9897 ;
_v30
856 4 0 _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9171-0
912 _aZDB-2-EES
999 _c113607
_d113607