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001 978-90-481-8897-0
003 DE-He213
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007 cr nn 008mamaa
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020 _a9789048188970
_9978-90-481-8897-0
024 7 _a10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0
_2doi
050 4 _aHB848-3697
072 7 _aJHBD
_2bicssc
072 7 _aSOC006000
_2bisacsh
082 0 4 _a304.6
_223
100 1 _aBijak, Jakub.
_eauthor.
245 1 0 _aForecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View
_h[electronic resource] /
_cby Jakub Bijak.
264 1 _aDordrecht :
_bSpringer Netherlands :
_bImprint: Springer,
_c2011.
300 _aXXIV, 316 p.
_bonline resource.
336 _atext
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _acomputer
_bc
_2rdamedia
338 _aonline resource
_bcr
_2rdacarrier
347 _atext file
_bPDF
_2rda
490 1 _aThe Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis,
_x1389-6784 ;
_v24
505 0 _aList of tables and figures -- Part I. Introduction -- Part II. Explaining and forecasting migration -- Part III. Examples of Bayesian migration predictions -- Part IV. Perspectives of forecast makers and users -- Part V. Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Subject Index -- Index of Names -- Annex A. Data sources and the preparatory work -- Annex B. WinBUGS code used in the presented Bayesian forecasts -- Annex C. Bayesian forecasts of selected migration flows in Europe.
520 _aInternational migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications. “This is a great book that represents a step-change in the forecasting of international migration. Jakub Bijak advocates for the use of Bayesian statistics - a natural way to combine subjective prior information with statistical data. The Bayesian framework provides also a natural way to further develop the migration forecasting process that is ultimately aimed at accounting for and reducing the different uncertainties, and that involves cognitive agents with different expertise - migration experts, population forecasters and forecast users - in order to accomplish that aim. The book is a must for everyone interested knowing how migration, especially international, will evolve and respond to changing conditions, events and policies.” <Prof. Frans Willekens, Director of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, and Professor of Population Studies, University of Groningen
650 0 _aSocial sciences.
650 0 _aMathematical statistics.
650 0 _aMigration.
650 0 _aDemography.
650 1 4 _aSocial Sciences.
650 2 4 _aDemography.
650 2 4 _aMigration.
650 2 4 _aStatistical Theory and Methods.
710 2 _aSpringerLink (Online service)
773 0 _tSpringer eBooks
776 0 8 _iPrinted edition:
_z9789048188963
830 0 _aThe Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis,
_x1389-6784 ;
_v24
856 4 0 _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0
912 _aZDB-2-SHU
999 _c108968
_d108968