Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View (Record no. 108968)
[ view plain ]
| 000 -LEADER | |
|---|---|
| fixed length control field | 04067nam a22004815i 4500 |
| 001 - CONTROL NUMBER | |
| control field | 978-90-481-8897-0 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER | |
| control field | DE-He213 |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION | |
| control field | 20140220083823.0 |
| 007 - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION FIXED FIELD--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | cr nn 008mamaa |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | 101029s2011 ne | s |||| 0|eng d |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER | |
| International Standard Book Number | 9789048188970 |
| -- | 978-90-481-8897-0 |
| 024 7# - OTHER STANDARD IDENTIFIER | |
| Standard number or code | 10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0 |
| Source of number or code | doi |
| 050 #4 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER | |
| Classification number | HB848-3697 |
| 072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE | |
| Subject category code | JHBD |
| Source | bicssc |
| 072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE | |
| Subject category code | SOC006000 |
| Source | bisacsh |
| 082 04 - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER | |
| Classification number | 304.6 |
| Edition number | 23 |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Bijak, Jakub. |
| Relator term | author. |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View |
| Medium | [electronic resource] / |
| Statement of responsibility, etc | by Jakub Bijak. |
| 264 #1 - | |
| -- | Dordrecht : |
| -- | Springer Netherlands : |
| -- | Imprint: Springer, |
| -- | 2011. |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION | |
| Extent | XXIV, 316 p. |
| Other physical details | online resource. |
| 336 ## - | |
| -- | text |
| -- | txt |
| -- | rdacontent |
| 337 ## - | |
| -- | computer |
| -- | c |
| -- | rdamedia |
| 338 ## - | |
| -- | online resource |
| -- | cr |
| -- | rdacarrier |
| 347 ## - | |
| -- | text file |
| -- | |
| -- | rda |
| 490 1# - SERIES STATEMENT | |
| Series statement | The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, |
| International Standard Serial Number | 1389-6784 ; |
| Volume number/sequential designation | 24 |
| 505 0# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE | |
| Formatted contents note | List of tables and figures -- Part I. Introduction -- Part II. Explaining and forecasting migration -- Part III. Examples of Bayesian migration predictions -- Part IV. Perspectives of forecast makers and users -- Part V. Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Subject Index -- Index of Names -- Annex A. Data sources and the preparatory work -- Annex B. WinBUGS code used in the presented Bayesian forecasts -- Annex C. Bayesian forecasts of selected migration flows in Europe. |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc | International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications. “This is a great book that represents a step-change in the forecasting of international migration. Jakub Bijak advocates for the use of Bayesian statistics - a natural way to combine subjective prior information with statistical data. The Bayesian framework provides also a natural way to further develop the migration forecasting process that is ultimately aimed at accounting for and reducing the different uncertainties, and that involves cognitive agents with different expertise - migration experts, population forecasters and forecast users - in order to accomplish that aim. The book is a must for everyone interested knowing how migration, especially international, will evolve and respond to changing conditions, events and policies.” |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Social sciences. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Mathematical statistics. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Migration. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Demography. |
| 650 14 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Social Sciences. |
| 650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Demography. |
| 650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Migration. |
| 650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Statistical Theory and Methods. |
| 710 2# - ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME | |
| Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element | SpringerLink (Online service) |
| 773 0# - HOST ITEM ENTRY | |
| Title | Springer eBooks |
| 776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY | |
| Display text | Printed edition: |
| International Standard Book Number | 9789048188963 |
| 830 #0 - SERIES ADDED ENTRY--UNIFORM TITLE | |
| Uniform title | The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, |
| -- | 1389-6784 ; |
| Volume number/sequential designation | 24 |
| 856 40 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0 |
| 912 ## - | |
| -- | ZDB-2-SHU |
No items available.